The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate could decline to 17% by December 2025, citing ongoing disinflationary trends.

The forecast follows the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that inflation dropped to 20.12% in August, down from 21.88% in July.

In a policy statement on Wednesday, IMPI urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to consider lowering the benchmark interest rate at its next meeting to reflect the easing inflationary pressure.

Disinflation Gains Momentum

IMPI Chairman Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju explained that while some critics argue that falling inflation has not translated to lower prices for ordinary Nigerians, the data reveal clear progress.

“Empirically speaking, the Nigerian economy is now in a disinflationary dispensation,” Akinsiju said.
“Disinflation refers to the slowing pace of inflation, and Nigeria is witnessing one of the sharpest mid-year slowdowns in more than a decade.”

According to IMPI, inflation has dropped from 24.5% in January 2025 to 20.12% in August, representing a 17.5% decline. This, the group noted, is the sharpest mid-year slowdown in over 10 years, comparable only to the disinflationary periods of 2017 and 2018.

Key Drivers Behind the Decline

The think tank identified several factors behind the recent decline, including tighter monetary policy, government reforms, and easing food supply shocks. IMPI emphasized that if the current trend continues, Nigeria will record a sustained slowdown in consumer prices, making 2025 a turning point in its inflation story.